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  • There has been a great deal of discussion about racism in society in recent weeks, especially in connection to issues such as the Baltimore riots, relationship to poverty, and even the First Lady’s aversion of museums. However, one trend that has gained more traction in recent years is a form of […]

    The Soft Bigotry Of Progressive Arrogance

    There has been a great deal of discussion about racism in society in recent weeks, especially in connection to issues such as the Baltimore riots, relationship to poverty, and even the First Lady’s aversion of museums. However, one trend that has gained more traction in recent years is a form of […]

  • There are few public policy disagreements that show the poor level of intellectual discourse in America as well as the recent uproar over Indiana’s Religious Freedom Restoration Act (RFRA) has demonstrated. In the past week, innumerable disingenuous, dishonest arguments about the intent, character, and goals of RFRAs has come from […]

    The Silly, Unintellectual ‘Religious Freedom’ Debate

    There are few public policy disagreements that show the poor level of intellectual discourse in America as well as the recent uproar over Indiana’s Religious Freedom Restoration Act (RFRA) has demonstrated. In the past week, innumerable disingenuous, dishonest arguments about the intent, character, and goals of RFRAs has come from […]

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The Soft Bigotry Of Progressive Arrogance

There has been a great deal of discussion about racism in society in recent weeks, especially in connection to issues such as the Baltimore riots, relationship to poverty, and even the First Lady’s aversion of museums.

However, one trend that has gained more traction in recent years is a form of soft bigotry that is pervasive among the extreme Left, especially among Progressives.

This came to the forefront this week in my mind because of the behavior of Bloomberg News Editor Mark Halperin. Halperin, in a much documented interview with Senator and Presidential candidate Ted Cruz, asked a serious of questions that can only be termed as ‘race baiting’.  His questions centered on Cruz’s ethnicity more than any intellectual or policy positions held by this distinguished man.

This correlates quite nicely with how many, if not most, progressives view ‘Non-Liberal Minorities’.  Anyone in a minority group who does not conform to the Progressive ideology is considered an anomaly, to be outed and criticized.

In a time long past, they would be using the term “Uncle Tom”.

Halperin’s interview is actually only a microcosm of the problem. Ask any minority conservative how Progressives treat them and their ideology, and a very common theme arises: one in which the Progressive is aghast that a minority can hold a conservative ideological position. And therefore, since their viewpoint is an anathema to their cultural background, the conservative must prove their ‘worth’ when it comes to minority status. thoughtcrime

This reaction is fundamentally based in arrogance, ignorance, and ultimately…a form of soft bigotry.

The fundamental position held by Progressives that act this way is that they, and their cohort of believers, know better than any other individual how best to think. Furthermore, that ideological position is so certain, so foundational in their minds, that any minority that holds a belief in opposition must be either stupid, deluded, ignorant, or must be actively being paid to hold such a position.

Of course, a corollary of this is the behavior of Gay activist when a prominent Gay Hotel owner in New York City decided to [GASP!] talk to Senator Ted Cruz.  Mati Weiderpass and his partner, Ian Reisner, were inundated with hateful attacks from Leftists and Progressives after hosting a sit down chat with Cruz. The simple act of sitting down and eating with someone who disagrees with you is apparently a bridge too far for many on the Left.

In an editorial Sunday, Weiderpass took his critics to task:

In the U.S., if the rights to free speech, expression, and association are whittled away, the gay community along with most other minority communities will be vulnerable to losing all that has been gained.  Shunning dialogue with political opponents is not the road to advancement.

Beyond the free speech issues, what this shows again is the inability of many on the far Left in this country to accept true diversity of ideas. They are sadly intellectually limited only to a diversity that they can see visually; any deeper philosophical diversity is beyond them.  Fundamentally, if one does not conform, they do not deserve to exist, in the Progressive mind. And that goes double for those of us that are minorities, because, apparently…we should know better.

The presumption that any group, whether it be based on race, creed, sexual identity, or some other superficial criteria, should only think a certain way is inherently prejudiced, racist, or bigoted. A tolerant society would accept every thinking person for their belief system, and their individuality…and ideally, would try to understand their intellectual position, instead of relying on the most inane component of that person’s being. Until progressives reach this type of acceptance…bigotry will continue, just in a form that we are historically not used to.

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Avengers: Age of Ultron: Movie Review

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Marvels Avengers, directed by Joss Whedon, is the third largest worldwide grossing movie of all-time, reaping in over $1.5 billion.  As such, it was a no brainer to bring in the Marvels team for a second go around.

The problem facing Whedon and the producers of this sequel is the problem always faced by Hollywood with action sequels:  “What’s bigger and badder?” What threat to humanity could invoke more emotion and anxiety?

In our first movie, do recall, aliens invade Earth in order to subjugate all of mankind, only to be stopped after the absolute destruction of Manhattan.

So how do you possible elevate the game?

Whedon chooses to try to go small first.  The movie largely begins by going back to the characters themselves, each with their own lives and goals.  Joss Whedon does try to make this a more intimate get together, although that was likely always impossible in a film like this.

Whedon never seems to take himself too seriously, and that ultimately lets the viewer ‘go with the flow’ with sometimes silly, occasionally outrageous plot lines.  The scene with the Avengers playing with Thor’s hammer is a perfect example.

What’s fascinating is how Whedon uses Hawkeye and Black Widow, our most ‘human’ Avengers, to play prominent roles, in many ways as the viewers’ surrogate participants among their ‘God-like’ partners. In many ways, Whedon uses their experiences as a window into how average, normal humans would react to this war among the erstwhile immortals that rule over us.

In a sense, the destruction and the reality of humanity teetering on the verge of planetary apocalypse is almost a backdrop to the characters themselves.  Literally any ‘end of the world’ scenario would work here…because that ultimately isn’t really even the focus of the movie.

That said, the big new bad guy is Ultron…an artificial robotic lifeform (voiced by the impeccable James Spader) who Tony Stark initially envisions as a protector for the planet. That plan does not go so well…as Ultron gains a newfound hatred for the species that created him. Spader brings a level of charm (dare I say, a level of humanity?) to the character that makes him seem somewhat more foreboding than a robotic voice would do.

The movie ultimately does pay off, but in a sense…we have been here, done that.  The actions scenes are fantastic, as you would come to expect in any Marvel movie.  But at this point, is there any action that could ‘wow’ us anymore?

This doesn’t mean it isn’t worth seeing. It simply means no new ground is broken here, there is nothing we haven’t seen before.  Whedon has said he wanted to make Age of Ultron a shorter, more intimate film than his first Avengers movie. In that, he failed completely; in many ways, this is a louder, less personal film, largely because of the necessities of commercialism and the need to expand the ever growing Marvel Universe.

But that said, intimate is not what comic books are about. They are about action scene to action scene, about global threats and heroes at the edge of their limits. This movie does certainly deliver on that.

There are scenes that will initiate nerdgasms (especially the introduction of Vision to the series, but that discussion I’ll leave for another day), but for the average viewers, this is your usual, summertime romp.  Not evolutionary, but still a blast. It does sets up the future Civil War plot line nicely, and I can’t wait for the potential of an all out war among heroes, with Spiderman joining the fray.

For the comic book devotee and science fiction fan, however, this is just another episode in one of the great gifts Hollywood has presented us in the modern golden age of science fiction of the past two decades. Enjoy it while it lasts.

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The Silly, Unintellectual ‘Religious Freedom’ Debate

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There are few public policy disagreements that show the poor level of intellectual discourse in America as well as the recent uproar over Indiana’s Religious Freedom Restoration Act (RFRA) has demonstrated.

In the past week, innumerable disingenuous, dishonest arguments about the intent, character, and goals of RFRAs has come from all sides, largely amounting to no real advancement of the debate.  We have, however, successfully called each other bigots, Nazis, Brownshirts, and other names, all the while not truly discussing what is a real, and rather fascinating, debate about how a free society deals with disparate belief systems in the public sphere.

I am no legal expert, so I will leave the intricacies of the various state and Federal statutes to those that are much more knowledgeable.  I think we have seen some excellent articles from Josh Blackmon (who has several great posts, including those notably on his blog and in the National Review), Eugene Volokh, Jonathan Adler, Gabriel Malor, and many, many others.  I will happily defer to them on the myriad of legal issues involved with these cases.

However, where the debate has failed miserably is in the philosophical discussion of what human interaction means in America, and what is required of us in a free, equitable society.

What is missing from this debate is understanding that free association in a free society not only allows for equal access to all, but allow for individuals to opt out of participation when they so choose. And opting out of public issues, when you are an individual, is wholly within the sphere of freedom in a diverse society.

I think the major confusion comes from whether you think a person is acting in the ‘public’ arena or not when they interact in some form of commerce. When we get down to the complaints from social conservatives on religious freedom, versus complaints from progressives on complaints about discrimination, this is where the conflict arises.

First, let me say that a ‘public’ entity should be open to all. Some libertarians disagree with this, but I believe this is where the line should be drawn.  Absolutist libertarians believe all free association should be voluntary.  I sympathize with that belief philosophically, but in all practical terms such a system could not exist in America as it exists today.

A ‘public’ entity is one that has entered into a virtual social contract with the community to provide goods and services to everyone in that community. One does not get a permit to open a restaurant in any city in America to only serve people they deem fit based on arbitrary criteria.  The same goes for gas stations, grocery stores, pharmacies, etc. On the other hand, if an entity wishes to be private, that is their choice too; but then they will be treated as such, with the more limited government interventions that go along with that type of business.

The question then becomes, what is ‘public’?  Clearly, any business that accepts ‘walk-in’ customers, in my humble opinion, should be considered, as my list above shows. Additionally, any service deemed ‘emergent’ must be included: that includes medical care facilities, car repair shops, ambulance service, etc. I find very few people willing to allow restaurants to pick and choose which customers it is willing to serve based on race, culture, creed, or sexual orientation. And nobody wants to restrict access to services in case of any type of emergency.

If we establish that truly open public entities do have to meet a much higher burden, then what controversy is left?

The more troublesome question for many may be, what is deemed ‘private’?  Here in lies the battlefront of the culture wars. If you are an independent professional, such as a photographer…should you be forced to travel to, participate in, and perform duties at a gay wedding? Or for any wedding, for that matter? Or any religious ceremony?

How about a web designer?  Should a Jewish web designer be obligated to do websites for antisemitic groups? Or, even, right-wing extremist Christian or Muslim groups? Under the construct logically built by many progressives, that is precisely the standard they would apply.

There are going to be gray areas in any legal construct, and this one is certainly no exception. What do we do about a bakery, who has a public store, but also does private catering? I think the question answers itself: the bakery as a public entity cannot discriminate on these issues; but the catering business, which is not public and is an ‘At Will’ commercial entity, should be able to.

To presume that government retains the power to force an individual into such a scenario is very troublesome.  We can come up with all sorts of absurd scenarios: an African-American singer at a KKK rally; a gay designed at a party held by Westboro church; a Muslim waiter at a pig roast.

Of course, those are uses of absurdity to prove the point.  We in our society try to allow as much personal choice as possible, whenever possible. But what if that choice appears discriminatory to one of the participants? Is that personally legally bound to serve the other, because of their hurt feelings, or general belief that they are being hurt based on the choice of that other person?

The other question we must all face is, how much burden to we place on each party?  My driving intent is to place as little burden on each party as possible in order to allow them to follow their own personal choices.  A gas station that limits access to certain individuals could potentially place an enormous burden on a gay couple running out of fuel. On the other hand, if a wedding photographer refuses to perform at a wedding…is the burden to find another photographer so great as to require government force to impose that will on that individual?  That does not seem reasonable; and when such a case arose last year, more than 80% of Americans (with supermajorities of both Republicans and Democrats) believed that was a step too far.

Let me make two points, both more political than philosophical. I think conservatives need to come to terms with the fact that homosexuals do have a lot of right to complain about how they have been treated.  Additionally, many conservatives never came to their aid, when their rights were clearly being diminished. The fact that they have trouble trusting conservatives in general is not unreasonable. Conservatives must make an attempt to bridge this distrust.

However, the progressives that have led this fight have been quite illogical in their response. These same people who do not like arbitrary refusal of service based on moral beliefs are the same people who applaud when a musician refuses to allow Republicans fair use of their music during campaigns. Every four years, we hear about how Republicans struggle to find music they can use, because…the music industry is discriminating against conservatives.

The day progressives demands musicians should require all politicians be allowed to use their music as is deemed reasonable under the law…I will believe they really believe what they are saying.  I am anxiously waiting for the moment Miley Cyrus’s music is used by a pro-life, social conservative Republican..and she demands that her work product not be used because of her moral stands.  The schadenfraude would be tremendous.  Of course, considering the quality of her music, I likely will be waiting a long time for such an occurrence.

Like any personal freedom in a public society, the discussion of the protections of religious freedoms when it involves free association of individuals and interaction of citizens with the public is a difficult on, especially upon first glance.  But if we are willing to contemplate the practical realities involved, and try to defer to individual choice as much as possible, solutions do start to emerge. The greatest failure of our political process today is its failure to bring about such sensible discourse; the debate over Indiana’s RFRA is just the latest, but not the last, of these types of ludicrous discussions.

 

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The Path To Free Market Health Care: Philip Klein’s ‘Overcoming Obamacare’

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Conservatives have been mesmerized by the discussion of how we find a way to roll back the Affordable Care Act, President Obama’s signature legislation.  The number of pages written on the subject must be in the millions.

And despite that, Philip Klein‘s book, Overcoming Obamacare, does a better job than almost any of its predecessors to succinctly and aptly describe the hurdles conservatives face in reaching that goal.  Even in the week since the book was published, many have written about their opinions about Klein’s view of the landscape.  Just to give some perspective, I point you to my favorite reads on the subject from Mark Hemingway, Aaron Carroll, Veronique de Rugy, and Ezra Klein.  I believe it is well worth a read for health policy experts, politicians, and average citizens that want to get their heads around the very complicated and important subject.  And frankly, at $2.99 on Amazon for the Kindle version, it is readily accessible to everyone.

Klein begins the book by providing a nice synopsis of the evolution of the ACA, what Democrats intended to achieve from the beginning, and the multitude of compromises they made to get the complicated ‘Rube Goldberg’ (Paul Krugman’s words, not mine or Klein’s) system passed in order to achieve their long-term goal: single payer health care.

But where Klein’s book excels, and takes us past previous Obamacare books, is his breakdown of where the conservative attempts for pushing back the ACA’s government over extended regulations and restrictions stand.  He concisely breaks down these political camps between the Reform School, Replace School, and the Restart School.

The Reform School proposes to roll back many of the taxes and regulations of the ACA, while not fully repealing the law wholesale.  It’s biggest and most vocal proponent has been Avik Roy, Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute and Editor of the opinion page at Forbes.  Roy has published an extensive, specific plan called ‘Transcending Healthcare‘, which lays out specifically how he would transform the current health care exchanges into a more free market system, reduce federal regulation and taxation, all the while providing more choice to American consumers, reducing the overall taxpayer costs in health care, while also covering more citizens than is currently expected to be covered under Obamacare.

As Klein notes, the harshest critics of the Reform School largely lie within the Replace School.  The question ultimately lies upon how much you believe Obamacare can truly be repealed. Those that believe the entire law can be repealed, without any or little political cost, prefer repeal. Those, like Roy, who see complete repeal as unlikely because of the millions of people who would lose health care insurance under such a strategy, feel that a different path is necessary.

The Replace School, on the other hand, firmly believes that the entire Affordable Care Act can and should be repealed; and then, if that occurs, put in place a true conservative vision of free market health care.  Led by such commentators as James Capretta of the American Entreprise Institute and Yuval Levin of the National Review, this group largely believes that we cannot reform the current system until the damage of Obamacare is remove.  Capretta has written extensively on the subject, and has submitted his own extensive plan on the subject.

The most extensive proposal in this school, however, is by the Republican Senatorial triumvirate of Tom Coburn, Orrin Hatch, and Robert Burr. The Burr-Coburn-Hatch proposal would have completely repealed the Affordable Care Act, and replace it. This plan would have dramatically decreased federal regulations on states, allowing them far more leniency in developing their own regulations, while covering slightly more individuals than Obamacare while spending less money.

The final school Klein outlines is the Restart School.  This school is most famously identified with Sen. Ted Cruz, although I would argue its biggest true propoents are Rep. Paul Ryan and Gov. Bobby Jindal.

Jindal, for one, has submitted the America Next proposal for health care reform.  It was far more radical in its approach than the other plans listed here, largely because of its radical reform of the employer based system.  As such, it requires the end of the Affordable Care Act, which is largely built on the employer mandate and the presumption that most Americans will continue to receive health care through their employers.  It also in many ways requires the end of the employer sponsored insurance system that has been the foundation of health care in the U.S. since the 1940s.  Therefore, it is hard to envision such a plan not to cause widespread disruption and anxiety.

As Klein admits, there are many whose positions overlap these three broad ‘schools’.  However, I think Klein does a great service to conservatives by simplifying where the current conservative positions stand.

By providing a ‘gestalt’ view of conservatism’s health care positions, Klein allows many who don’t follow the specifics and intricacies of the health care reform debate to start to build a ‘ mental construct’ of how to approach the entire issue. I have found that those that are politically savvy but not necessarily knowledgeable about health care find this entire debate off-putting. In fact, I found this to be a common symptom of how Congressmen and Senators approach the issue; it is easier for them to use platitudes and generalities in their responses to health care reform, instead of truly understanding the cost and benefits of each strategy to reform the system.

I also think that for many, we have gone through an evolution on this.  Four years ago, I would have definitely placed myself in the ‘Restart School’.  I fundamentally didn’t believe that Obamacare could be adequately reformed, and therefore, only a complete overhaul was appropriate.

However, I personally believe that we crossed the Rubicon with the defeat of Mitt Romney in 2012.  Once the exchanges and Medicaid expansion occurred in full force, we had lost the short-term window for a full repeal.

As of 2015, the landscape is far different than it was in 2012.  Millions, in one manner or another, and for better or worse, have been insured under the Obamacare system, largely with subsidies and direct benefits from the government. It is possible to roll back these measures, but once started, that rollback will have to be incremental to be truly politically viable.

Klein’s book is a short, succinct tome that everyone truly interested in understanding the strategies necessary for conservatives to return health care to a free market model should read and try to assimilate into their own thinking process.  I think it is now essential reading for all conservative politicos and Republican politicians, along with items such as Avik Roy’s health plan and Tom Coburn’s extensive writings on the subject.  Conservatives need to, in short order, decide on a reasonable political strategy forward, while also balancing the most cost efficient, free market approach to health care that we can possibly pass into law.  As such, Philip Klein’s submission to this literature is a worthy addition.

 

 

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2014 Musings….

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Some random thoughts on the year that has passed…

  • Personally, an excellent year, on all fronts.
  • For the country…not so great.  At the very least, it was troubling to watch a country attack its men on the thin blue line, instead of working with the police force to make reforms to better us all.  It was disturbing to watch many supposedly intelligent people on the left fall into the trap of believing emotions before facts.  And most troubling, it is worrisome that our leaders, especially the President of the United States, appears not to have any type of learning curve, as he proposes to make his old mistakes all over again.
  • 2014 was a horrible, no good, terrible year for liberalism, and as a corollary, President Obama and Democrats.  More and more of their views of the world, as is, was discredited.
  • On foreign policy, ISIS proved Obama’s view of the Middle East was incorrect from the beginning; and he appears to be ready to repeat the same mistake in Afghanistan.
  • On the economy, we continue in our relatively stagnant path.  You know things are bad when Democrats are celebrating sub-3% GDP growth; things are better, but that is a poor barometer when millions remain out of work and out of the workforce all together.
  • On many basic issues (police use of force stories, Keystone pipeline, voter ID/intimidation, minimum wage) liberals continue to hide from basic facts and reality, to the detriment of all.
  • The biggest success story for Democrats was Obamacare; and even that comes with caveats.  The easy part of the program, delivering relatively free Medicaid benefits to millions of poor, is largely over.  On the other hand, they are largely failing on making the exchanges more affordable for the middle class.  Premiums are not increasing (a trend that has been going on now since 2004, before Obamacare was even a dream) but that doesn’t mean the pricing pressures have gone away.  In fact, there is some evidence it is getting worse.
  • Republicans had a very decent year.  They had no major detrimental scandals, for the most part.  They carried out their plan for the midterm election, and brought it successfully to fruition, even though they were outspent in many cases.  The increased majority in the House, and the retaking of the Senate, was a major coup, and all honest assessments will admit they did pretty much as well as they possibly could have.
  • I didn’t bother to do a movie review this year…because I saw so few movies.  I will say that I loved Guardians of the Galaxy and the Winter Soldier.  The X-Men movie, as well as the Hunger Games sequel were solid.  Other than that, not many movies impressed me much this year.
  • On the TV front, we continue to see the golden age of geekdom.  Whether it is the Walking Dead, Game of Thrones, Agents of Shield, Arrow, The Flash…you are living in the golden age of science fiction and fantasy. Enjoy it.
  • For 2015, I doubt politically we will achieve much.  I think the GOP is going to propose (and likely pass) a fair amount of decent legislation; Obama will simply obstruct. I think Obamacare will muddle along, with many of the same problems, and a host of new ones (especially the IRS rules that are impending).  On foreign affairs, things will get worse with ISIS, because Obama isn’t serious about confronting them; Iran will come a year closer to the bomb; and our other enemies will largely ignore the US.
  • Economically, I do believe we are improving.  But that improvement will continue to be asymmetrically targeted to the 1%.  The rich and upper middle class are continue to do quite well, as stocks and real estate surge and rebound.  The rest of the country, sadly, will continue to lag.  Obama’s policies will continue to widen the wealth gap, as it has done since the beginning of his presidency.
  • On the sports front, looking very much forward to watching how Jim Harbaugh leads the Michigan Wolverine football team.
  • 2014 was a mundane year for movies; the same cannot be said for 2015.  Avengers: Age of Ultron, the final Hunger Games, Fantastic Four, Jurassic World, James Bond’s SPECTRE, Terminator: Genisys, Ant-man, Minions, Mission: Impossible V, Ex-Machina, Pixar’s The Good Dinosaur and Inside Out, Mad Max: Fury Road, Disney’s Tomorrowland…a fantastic list, all culminating in the king of them all, Star Wars Episode VII: The Force Awakens.  My kid is giggling in glee for a movie that won’t come out for a year; that should tell you all you need to know.
  • 2015 looks to be a banner year on many fronts.  I wish all of you the best of luck in the coming year.
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Fall Of The Berlin Wall…And Our March Toward Progress

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25 years ago today, November 9, 1989, marks one of the most monumental, pivotal moments of modern history.

After more than four decades of seclusion from the Western World, with a literal concrete wall separating them from freedom, economic hope, as well as often their own families, the people of East Berlin were freed from their virtual imprisonment from the totalitarian excesses of the Soviet Empire.

Today, many view this as obvious, almost fated occurrence in the world’s march toward progress and freedom.

That is a modern delusion that ill-suits not only the facts, but does a disservice into understanding the sacrifice and effort that the great undertaking of undermining the ‘Evil Empire’ of the Soviet Union cost the Western World, especially the United States of America.

Modern liberals, such as President Barack Obama, have a faith-like belief that the world will continually improve, that freedom naturally expands and grows, that economic freedom is the natural evolution of humanity’s existence on this planet.

Nothing can be further from the truth.

In the 20th century, we saw at least two great, existential threats to the progress of freedom in the globe:  Nazism and Communism.

The first took the death of 60-80 million people, or approximately 2.5% of the entire population of the planet.  In dollars and cents, the war cost the United States approximately $7 trillion…or half of our current gross domestic product. Worldwide, that cost shoots to almost $25 trillion…which would be 1/3 of the entire GDP of the entire race of Homo sapiens.

As for the Cold War, the costs are far less obviously, but no less consequential.  The rise of the Soviet State led to the worldwide threat of global thermonuclear war.  The brush fire conflicts that erupted around the globe, including in places like Korea, Vietnam, Angola, and elsewhere had to one degree or another their origins in the struggle of democracy versus communism.

It is very easy in hindsight to think that the results of either World War II or the Cold War was utterly expected and predicted.  But the facts and history tell us otherwise.  There were many moments during the history of both conflicts when the march toward of freedom could have chosen a different path, with far different results.

In both, however, it was the unending, fearless leadership of moral men, standing up for what was right and what was worth fighting for, that made the difference.  Obviously in World War II, those men were primarily Franklin D. Roosevelt and Winston Churchill.

During the Cold War, almost every U.S. President made this argument, and should be lauded for it.  But no two names were more meaningful than John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan.

For Kennedy, his moment in the crucible came in October 1962, as the Russians planned to deploy missiles to the nearby island of Cuba. Many members of Kennedy’s own party wanted him to stand down, and avoid any conflict.  But Kennedy understood a basic tenet of foreign policy: if you give into thugs, they will continue to demand more and more.  So instead, Kennedy established the blockade of Cuba…and the events unfolded as the success story we know today.

In 1961, Kennedy has little options to halt the Communists from erecting the Berlin Wall.  In June of 1963, he went to Berlin, and made claim to the mantle of freedom:

Two thousand years ago the proudest boast was “civis Romanus sum.” Today, in the world of freedom, the proudest boast is “Ich bin ein Berliner.”

“There are many people in the world who really don’t understand, or say they don’t, what is the great issue between the free world and the communist world. … Let them come to Berlin!”

“Lass’ sie nach Berlin kommen! [Let them come to Berlin!]”

What we see with Kennedy is an understanding that actions and words are important in defending your beliefs.  If you do not back up your lofty words with strong, forceful actions, those around the world that oppose you have no reason to believe in your word.

President Ronald Reagan in many ways was JFK’s successor in this regard.  He used forceful, sometimes scary language to describe the Soviet Union.  He did not mince words, calling them adversaries or whatnot; he called them the enemy, and stood steadfast behind that belief.

Ronald Reagan speaks in front of Brandenburg Gate

 

On June 12, 1987, in front of the Brandenburg Gates that had become the symbolic heart of the Berlin Wall conflict, Reagan spoke words that JFK would have thought unthinkable to state in Berlin a generation earlier:

Behind me stands a wall that encircles the free sectors of this city, part of a vast system of barriers that divides the entire continent of Europe. From the Baltic, south, those barriers cut across Germany in a gash of barbed wire, concrete, dog runs, and guard towers. Farther south, there may be no visible, no obvious wall. But there remain armed guards and checkpoints all the same–still a restriction on the right to travel, still an instrument to impose upon ordinary men and women the will of a totalitarian state. Yet it is here in Berlin where the wall emerges most clearly; here, cutting across your city, where the news photo and the television screen have imprinted this brutal division of a continent upon the mind of the world. Standing before the Brandenburg Gate, every man is a German, separated from his fellow-men. Every man is a Berliner, forced to look upon a scar. …

…And now the Soviets themselves may, in a limited way, be coming to understand the importance of freedom. We hear much from Moscow about a new policy of reform and openness. Some political prisoners have been released. Certain foreign news broadcasts are no longer being jammed. Some economic enterprises have been permitted to operate with greater freedom from state control.

Are these the beginnings of profound changes in the Soviet state? Or are they token gestures, intended to raise false hopes in the West, or to strengthen the Soviet system without changing it? We welcome change and openness; for we believe that freedom and security go together, that the advance of human liberty can only strengthen the cause of world peace. There is one sign the Soviets can make that would be unmistakable, that would advance dramatically the cause of freedom and peace.

General Secretary Gorbachev, if you seek peace, if you seek prosperity for the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, if you seek liberalization: Come here to this gate! Mr. Gorbachev, open this gate! Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!

Today, this speech seems such an obvious, integral part of what modern America is, and what modern democracy is based on.  But at the time, many worldwide leaders were critical of Reagan’s harsh tone; and some Democrats in America thought it was bellicose and incendiary.

To this day, there is debate of the true effects of the speech on both the Communist Party’s transition that would occur in the months to come (The Soviet Union would be dissolved on December 26, 1991, only 25 months later). But the symbolic importance of the moment, especially considering the Berlin Wall fell 2 years after the speech and the Soviet Union only 2 years after that, cannot be overstated.  Fundamentally, even the Fall of the Berlin wall was, in a sense, only a symbolic gesture on the world’s path to ridding us of the tyranny of communism.

The lessons learned from the Cold War could be profound for our modern conflicts, but our current leadership seems unwilling or unable to accept the lessons at hand. The demise of Communism was never a certainty, never a fate we were promised by some higher power or by some vague form of manifest destiny.  It took political leaders, from both American political parties, from all ends of the modern Western political spectrum, to slowly, steadily, and methodically push back against the forces of oppression that the Warsaw Pact represented.

Today, we face a similar existential threat in Radical Islam, Islamofascism, or whatever term you see most fit. But we still have not learned the lessons of the past.  We must hold fast to the belief that freedom and democracy, above all else, is the way forward.  We must believe that although we don’t want to impose, in any fashion, our belief system in others, we should not deny that our system has been far superior to these alternatives around the globe.

Our leadership today seems unwilling to accept this type of moral superiority.  They refuse to truly grasp the mantle of freedom the way that Kennedy, Reagan, and so many others across the globe did.  And they don’t understand that without such true belief in our system, we can never be victorious over the forces of violence, oppression, and hatred that confronts today.

So, we should celebrate the momentous symbolic achievement of the Fall of the Berlin Wall.  We should accept the great victory that it was over the oppressive communist threat.  But hopefully, some will also learn the larger lessons we should derive from that.

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Final 2014 Midterm Election Predictions

The final Fix Senate rankings are here    The Washington Post

With a little under a week to go before Election Day, it is time to make last-minute predictions once again.

You can see my earlier predictions from January here, and from October here.

Overall, the trends have moved slightly, but not significantly, toward Republicans.  The generic poll numbers have not significantly moved, but the enthusiasm gap steadily has increased, as the GOP is relatively excited to come out and voice their displeasure at the polls.

GOVERNORS

I didn’t spend a lot of time on the Governor’s races in my previous post, and won’t do so here either, other than to make quick predictions on a few key races.  In the races not mentioned, I expect the incumbent/heavily favored to win.

Alaska: Walker (I), in close race.

Colorado:  Hickenlooper (D) anb Beauprez are going neck-and-neck; I was ready to call it for Hickenlooper a few days ago, but right now…I wouldn’t bet a nickel on either side.  True tossup. Guess?  Republicans pull it out.

Connecticut: Polls are tied; my gut says Foley (R) ousts Gov. Malloy.

Florida:  I have no idea; really.  I would not be surpised to see a recount.

Georgia: Deal (R), but less than 50%, so heads to runoff.

Illinois: Polling all over the place; low confidence, but I think Rauner (R) pulls it out.

Kansas:  Another true tossup; gut tells me Brownback (R) wins, though deserves to lose.

Maine: LePage (R), by the skin of his teeth.

Massachusetts:  Baker (R); a stunning turn of events.

Michigan:  Snyder (R)

New Hampshire:  Hassan (D), in a race closer than predicted.

Rhode Island: Fung (R) has run a great race, but I predict he loses to Raimondo.

Wisconsin: Walker (R), but closer than predicted.

 

HOUSE

In my earlier post, I predicted a gain of 5-8 House seats.  The polls have shifted recently, with several Democrat incumbents now in tough races, as both parties rush to pour money into these districts.  That is good news overall for Republicans, who could steal a few seats that were considered safe by Democrats, including several in the completely blue region of the North East.  Polls in states like New York are showing GOP surges late…that is a sign of good things.

PREDICTION:  Gain of 8-12 House seats, up from 5-8 earlier this month.

SENATE

All the real fun is still with the Senate.

The Senate prediction models (538, NY Times Upshot, Washington PostRealclearpolitics, Huffington Post, Wang,Larry Sabato, and the new AoSHQDD) have slightly moved toward Republicans in the past month, including Dr. Wang’s site, which had heavily favored Democrats last go around.

The short term shift of polls toward Democrats died a quick death, with most of the polls trending toward the GOP over the past several weeks.  In that last week before election day, we have seen several polling units show last-minute surges for Republicans. That has solidified some of the ratings changes below:

1.  ARKANSAS

Arkansas has trended GOP over the past several months, and Tom Cotton should be considered the heavy favorite.  This race looks very close to being over.

RATING:  Likely GOP.

2. NORTH CAROLINA

This race is sitting with a razor-thin margin.  Kay Hagan has had a lead for months, but that has been slowly, but steadily, narrowing.  Several polls show the race tightening or even at the moment.  If momentum matters, Tillis will pull it out.  As it were, I still have to give a light edge to Hagan, based on her long-term lead.  One caveat though: Hagan has polled consistently in the low 40s for the entire campaign; in the RealClearPolitics average, no incumbent has ever won re-election with a rating below 45% going into election day. Hagan will try to become the first.

RATING: Slight Democrat lean.

3.  LOUISIANA

This race is likely heading for a runoff in December.  Cassidy is trailing slightly in the three-way race for next week, but in head-to-head with Sen. Landrieu, shows a solid lead.  He is likely to win the race in December.

RATING: Likely GOP in runoff.

4.  Alaska

Alaska is notoriously hard to poll, because of its sparse population.  But there has been some decent polling there in recent weeks, and the news is not good for Democrats.  Dan Sullivan has opened a small, but persistent, lead over Democrat Senator Mark Begich.

RATING: Leans GOP

5. Iowa

Iowa was considered the ‘firewall’ for Senate Democrats’ hopes to hold the Senate, along with Colorado (see below). Bruce Braley was a unanimous choice as a strong candidate to hold the seat.  However, conservative Joni Ernst has run a strong campaign, attacking Braley on both policy and personal issues.  Surprisingly, Ernst appears to have the tiniest amount of momentum at this point.

This is another race that a late GOP surge makes me a believer.

RATING: Leans GOP.

6.  Colorado.

Along with Iowa, this was considered the Democrat firewall to hold the Senate.  Cory Gardner has disrupted that strategy.  Gardner is a solid candidate, who has run a clean campaign against incumbent Sen. Mark Udall. Udall has led for most of the year, but recently Gardner has taken a slight, but consistent, lead.  Udall has had several hiccups of late, but he still has a lot of money and a strong ground game.

Like Iowa, we are seeing a GOP surge late…and that should take Gardner over the top.

RATING:  Leans GOP.

7.  New Hampshire

Honestly…I did not think we would be talking about New Hampshire at this point.  Sen.  Jeanne Shaheen is a relatively popular Senator, with no major scandals.  Fmr. Sen. Scott Brown is a relative usurper, moving from Massachusetts just earlier this year. But key issues, including foreign policy, have made this race competitive. Shaheen still holds a steady lead though, and I presume she will pull it out.

RATING:  Leans Democrat.

8.  Michigan

Of all the races for the GOP, this is by far the most disappointing.  I openly advocated for Terri Lynn Land, but she has run a horrendous campaign, where her messaging has been off, her campaigning has been lackadaisical, and she has allowed herself to become mired in silly controversies time and again.   Unlike every other Republican on this list, she has actually outspent her opponent, to little or no avail. Gary Peters is not a good candidate, but in a blue state, you don’t have to be a good Democrat candidate to beat a mediocre Republican.

RATING:  Solid Democrat.

9.  Kansas

This is a race nobody can honestly predict.  All the fundamentals should mean Sen. Pat Roberts wins re-election.  The polls are not great in this race, but like Sean Trende has said on Twitter, until I see solid evidence, you have to bet on Roberts.

The GOP has ridden to Roberts’ rescue in the last few weeks. And former Sen. Bob Dole pulled out all the stops.  My guess is, by the skin of their teeth, that will be enough.

RATING:  Leans Republican.

10. Georgia

Georgia wasn’t listed in my last prediction…because I never seriously considered it in play.  However, just to show the flux in polling, a surge for Nunn gave her a tiny lead during the interim.  Perdue’s polling appears to have rebounded, and he seems to have a small lead.  This race looks like it is going to a runoff, but once there, Perdue will very likely comfortably win. However, Perdue has surged enough in recent days, he is achingly close to avoiding a runoff all together by reaching the 50% mark.

RATING: Leans Republican.

PREDICTION: I think the last two weeks have slightly shifted the electorate.  Where as some races were true tossups at that time, like Iowa and Colorado, those races now appear to be leaning Republican, if not out right over.  For example, the Des Moines Register poll, often considered the premier poll in the state of Iowa, gives Joni Ernst a outside-the-margin-of-error lead of 7 points, and calls the race over.  That would have been an unthinkable claim at the beginning of the month.

I think Republicans are going to be very, very disappointed in races in New Hampshire and North Carolina.  In New Hampshire, Scott Brown has run an excellent insurgent campaign, very much like this win in 2010 in Massachusetts.  However, the GOP was a little late in coming to his aid, and he will probably lose by a point or two.

In North Carolina, Thom Tillis had run a terrible campaign through out the summer.  He disastrously remained in the North Carolina state legislature, which not only gave him bad press, but allowed Kay Hagan to pound him on the campaign trail for months.  Tillis has done a nice job in recent weeks, both on the trail and in the debates.  I think he is going to fall just short though.

When all is said and done, I predict the GOP takes 8 seats, to get to a 53 seat majority in the United States Senate.

OVERALL:

In recent days, a lot of political pundits are already setting up the ‘expectations’ game for both political parties.  The Washington Post said the GOP will need a ‘reality check’ after winning.  Nate Cohn in the New York Times is that the success in the midterms tells us little about the electorate for 2016.

In general, that is true.  The midterm elections really have no significant bearing on what will happen in a Presidential elections.  We have to look no further than 1986 Democrat Party victory, after which George H.W. Bush shellacked Michael Dukakis; or 2010, when the GOP had a wave election, only to be overcome by Barack Obama once again in 2012.

Victories this year, mostly in states favorable to the GOP, doesn’t really prognosticate for future victories.

This comes with a couple caveats however.  Note how far the GOP has come since just JANUARY. See my predictions from January here, which aligned nicely with those of other pundits throughout the blogosphere. Democrats expected to hold both Colorado and Iowa, with Ken Buck thought to be the expected candidate in the former, and nobody giving Joni Ernst a chance in the latter.  New Hampshire was not supposed to really be in play.  North Carolina was the one race where Democrats can be happy with their plans.

In short, pundits are moving the bar greatly in these last few weeks. Simply put, virtually nobody predicted the GOP would take both Iowa and Colorado, both blue-leaning states in the era of Obama. And many, if not most, prognosticators thought Democrats would gain seats in the House, or at worst, stay even; instead, the Democrats are guaranteed to lose House seats, and some of those seats may be in relatively ‘safe’ Democrat districts.

The repercussions for 2016 and beyond simply cannot be predicted right now.  But the short answer is this: the GOP looks like it is doing their job: elevating their ground game, recruiting strong candidates, and then running relatively err0r-free campagins.  The Democrats, on the other hand, tried to depend on past victories in the ground game, recruited some poor to terrible candidates, and have run campaigns full of gaffes and mistakes.

Whether this is a true ‘wave’ election is a matter of opinion.  But there is no doubt, this is going to be a solid victory for Republicans, who now have to look forward both on policy and 2016 to make this election matter.