1. Election has clearly narrowed in the last few weeks. Hillary damaged herself by not leaking her own emails a year ago…which I said was a major mistake as far back as the Spring of 2015. By allowing others to dictate the moment of their release, Hillary likely lost her election mandate. Trump may very likely get less percentage of the vote than Romney but do better in the electoral vote than 2012.
2. Trump still seems lost on how to broaden the tent, even at this late date. Several last minute ad buys are more about strengthening the base than widening the electorate…that is a bad sign for him. The most worrisome data point is Nevada, where actual vote tallies show large turnout among Democrats…so much so that only a huge turnout on election day would even make the race close for Trump. Nevada is so bad that GOP likely will lose the state not only for Trump, but also for the Senate race as well as two contested House races there.
3. Senate control is as close as you can possibly get. My guess is Ayotte in New Hampshire will be the deciding factor.
4. GOP is going to lose about 10 or so House seats but will easily control the Chamber. The rumors about Paul Ryan stepping down are ludicrous.
5. Neither third party candidate will get 5% of the vote at this point.
6. Specifically about Ohio: Portman is going to take Strickland and Democrats to the woodshed; even Democrat insiders I have spoken to have now admitted this. The Ohio Democrat Party is as much in disarray as the national Republican Party. They are a party in the wilderness. As for Trump, he is neck-and-neck here with Clinton, and the race is too close to call. My gut tells me Trump pulls it out, but that is only a guess. This is despite the fact Trump’s get out the vote effort has been the most pathetic I have seen since I moved to Ohio; yes, it is far worse than even John McCain’s.
7. I will have my predictions out late Monday night. We will have an open election thread at that point on the Conservative Union.
8. Whatever your feelings….GO OUT AND VOTE. Consider it a patriotic duty as a true blooded American.