You can see my first prediction from this Spring here.
So what has changed?
I have moved Wisconsin and Iowa to the red column. Iowa has been trending red for quite some time, and Obama won the state narrowly in 2008. Same goes for Wisconsin, and I think the conglomeration of Paul Ryan, along with a competitive Senate race is going to turn out the Republican vote…and the results of that kind of turnout resulted in Scott Walker comfortably holding his Governorship just a few short months agao.
I have moved Nevada from red to blue. Obama appears strong in the Las Vegas area, and Romney simply has not made any headway in the polling there.
As for swing states leaning blue, Colorado remains in the Obama column for now, as does New Hampshire.
As for swing states leaning red, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida have been stubbornly even for months. However, Obama cannot get above 45% in any of those states for a consistent period. Those states will be determined based on turnout, and all three have Senate races that make it more interesting.
Thus, I see Romney expanding his electoral lead slightly since the spring. For Romney, the weakest states remain Wisconsin and Iowa; for Obama, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. As for expanding the playing field, Obama simply has a narrowing window while Romney’s window may be slightly expanding. States such as Michigan may come into play as we enter the Fall.
Overall, Romney should feel good, but not overly confident, while Obama must improve his base support while decreasing his negatives on the economy in these key battleground states.
I foresee doing more changes and adjustments as in the coming weeks.