As usual, you can see my updated election predictions here.
That said, time for some final predictions, with a week to go.
Here we go!!!
Senate: I predict Republicans will pick up the Senate seats in Arkansas, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada, North Dakota, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. That will give them a gain of +10, or bring the Senate to a 50/50 split, with Joe Biden the tiebreaking vote.
Note: Of those mentioned above, I am least optimistic about Washington and West Virginia, and fairly confident about Illinois, Nevada, and Colorado.
House: I am predicting a +62 seat gain for the GOP, which would give the Republicans a 251-184 Majority, dethroning Nancy Pelosi and making John Boehner Speaker of the House.
Governors: I am predicting Republicans take 31 Governors seats and Democrats 19.
For specific picks, please see my election page.
The predictions above would mean that this would be a larger landslide than 1994, and much larger than the Democrat swing of 2006 and 2008. You know it is ugly when Charlie Cook, prognosticator extradinaire, who is pretty reserved in his judgement on these things, seems to think that the low bar is 48 seats.
Even using that low bar, that would mean that the ‘realignment’ liberals were hoping for in 2008 is over. It would also signal the shortest reign of a Speaker of the House in half a century. ‘Catastrophic’ is not too extreme a word to use.
And that is the best case scenario for Democrats.
There is actually evidence that the tsunami wave could be growing. For example, Democrat Scott Murphy in New York’s 20th Congressional District was leading by 17 points last month. But now, in polls against Republican Chris Gibson, he is trailing by 9 points…a 26 point shift! Murphy’s internal polling shows it closer…but the trend is a big conservative surge, everyone agrees on that. And although some polls show Democrats closing the gap on leading Republicans, in general the polling appears to be going the other way nationally. The wave could be building.
It should be a fun week, as people go nuts on both sides, and the craziest ads and commentary comes out. Make sure you get out and vote!