So you can see my predictions of the year 2010 here, if you wish. My 2010 predictions weren’t too bad…but in hindsight, I have to say that I have outdone myself. Regular typeface is my original prediction, and bold is my current commentary…
- President Barack Obama will sign a health care reform bill…but not until well after the State of the Union, and only with a lot of difficulty. Democrats will fight another civil war on the public option, taxes, abortion, and illegal immigrants. CORRECT!
- Democrats will try for a third stimulus, in which Obama will try to focus on tax cuts, but progressives in the House will push him to spend more on government programs. CORRECT! ASSUMING YOU ARE COUNTING THE CURRENT TAX BATTLE.
- Obama’s Budget Director forecasts a 4.0% growth rate next year…the rate of growth will be much less, closer to 2.5% for the year. SO FAR, ACCURATE.
- We will see narrowing of job losses in the beginning of the year, but some of it will be smoke and mirrors as the government hires 700,000 temporary workers to carry out the 2010 census. By the end of 2010, the overall rate of unemployment will still be in the double digits. CLOSE. WE ARE SLIGHTLY UNDER 10%.
- The stock market will have a mediocre year, rising 7-8% to around Dow 11,300 by the end of next year. Businesses, however, will again be profitable. Hiring will start in earnest in the end of 2010. NOT BAD…THE DOW IS UP ABOUT 8% FOR THE YEAR.
- The Federal Reserve, in a bid to halt inflationary pressures, will increase Fed rates by middle of the year. The dollar will actually gain value…and gold will stabilize or drop in price. However, oil prices will rise to around $100/barrel. WRONG. THE FED IS STILL TRYING TO FLUSH MONEY INTO THE SYSTEM. OIL IS AROUND $80.
- Legislatively, Democrats will have greater and greater difficulty in passing anything. Cap-and-trade, immigration reform, and card check will all die an ignoble death. TRUE.
- Obama’s attempts at budget deficit control will go to naught, as Democrats fight among themselves over which they should do: tax increases or budget cuts. Ultimately, nothing will be done, and the deficit for 2010 will be around $1.5 trillion…or about the same as 2009. In other words, matching the largest national yearly deficit in world history. CORRECT!
- Almost nothing will get done by Congress, as Democrats (not Republicans) will virtually bring the legislature to a standstill. FALSE. REPUBLICANS STOPPED MOST EVERYTHING, TO THEIR CREDIT.
- By summer, Tea Party protests will be ravaging the nation, as the protesters fight for control of the Republican Party. Conservatives will be pitted against moderates, and in most races, the conservative will triumph; for example, Rubio probably will oust Crist in Florida. Democrats will giggle in glee, remembering the outcome of NY-23. But who has the last laugh? ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY CORRECT!
- Obama’s poll numbers will stabilize in the spring, as unemployment numbers artificially are leveled off. However, as the year progresses, and unemployment stays in double digits, Obama’s popularity will drop below 40%. As time goes on, Obama will be blamed more and more for the economy, and his laying the blame with the prior administration will sound more and more like whining. FALSE. ALTHOUGH MUCH IS TRUE, OBAMA’S POPULARITY HAS LEVELED IN THE MID-FORTIES.
- Republicans will gain 8 Senate seats. I will be more specific in my 2010 election prediction article, but briefly I predict Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and New York to flip (I know, I am an optimist). I predict Republicans will pick up 40 seats in the House, just short of the majority, but will try to entice additional Blue Dogs to switch parties. It will be that close. 2010 will be a historic landslide, ala the Second Republican Revolution. NOT BAD! REPUBLICANS GAINED 6, NOT 8, SENATE SEATS. AS FOR CONGRESS, I WAS CLEARLY PESSIMISTIC, AS THE GOP PICKED UP 63 SEATS…BUT CORRECT ABOUT THE LANDSLIDE!
As for my ever pathetic sports predictions:
- Alabama will defeat Texas for the BCS Championship. CORRECT!
- The San Diego Chargers will finally break through and win the Super Bowl. NOT QUITE.
- Kansas Jayhawks will win the NCAA Basketball championship. NOPE.
- Pittsburgh Penguins will repeat as NHL Champions; the L.A. Lakers will repeat as NBA championships in a classic series over the Boston Celtics. LAKERS CORRECT, PITTSBURGH NOT SO MUCH.
- The United States will finish 3rd in the medal count at the Olympics. WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC!
- The Red Sox will outduel the Yankees, and win the World Series. NOT EVEN CLOSE.
- O.K., my ‘homer’ picks were horrendous last year. Here we go: The Pistons will miss the playoffs, and get the 8th pick in the Lottery. The Red Wings will lose in the 2nd round of the NHL playoffs. The Tigers will miss the postseason once again, this time by 5 games. The Lions…who cares; I am a Redskins fan! The Skins will get Mike Shanahan as coach, dump Jason Campbell as QB, and will draft Sam Bradford with their first round pick, which will guarantee that he will be a major flop in the NFL. And my beloved Michigan Wolverines will get back to a bowl…but only an average one. FRANKLY, NOT BAD, NO?
Oh, and of course, the obligatory JibJab piece: