NEOAVATARA

The Republicans are out in the wilderness, maybe more so than any time since 1964. At that time, Democrats dominated Congress, and Lyndon Johnson had destroyed conservative icon Barry Goldwater.  But, in four short years, Republicans slowly staged a comeback.  The same can be said of 1992, when Bill Clinton defeated George Bush with majorities in both houses of Congress. by 1994, Republicans had taken Congress for the first time in 40 years.

Off year elections are always a boon to the out party.  Only once in the last 50 years has the party that held the White House gained seats in the off year election, that being in 2002. Unless the Republicans are totally inept (a possibility, I admit), they should be able to gain seats in the next go around.

It is always hard to predict how the opposition is going to do in off-year elections. But this year…this year has been insane.  The Democrats are trying to set-up a huge defeat next year, and every day that goes by, it seems to get worse for them and better for us.  You almost have to thank Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi for their neverending efforts to help conservatives. Between  Barack Obama’s fumbling of one issue to another, whether it be bailouts, the stimulus, the economy, cap-and-trade, immigration, and now healthcare, has made a Republican comeback more and more likely.

The polls this summer have trended toward Republicans, largely because of the health care debate.  Nothing since the Iraq War has unified conservatives in a common goal.  And with Democrats taking heat on reducing funding for Medicare, seniors are giving additional ammunition to Republicans.

Additionally, 2010 is looking to be a bad year for a party in power.  Obama’s White House had predicted a 3.5% GDP growth rate for 2010 when the Stimulus was passed…now, they are predicting half of that.  They assumed they would get job growth by the end of this year, and that unemployment would peak at 8%.  It is now predicted that unemployment will increase through much of 2010, and peak over 10%.  2.5 million people that Obama initially predicted to be employed next year will in fact be on the unemployment rolls.

The first harbinger of bad omens for the Democrats is the upcoming 2009 New Jersey and Virginia governorship races.  These races are always pointed to as predicting future trends.  Whether you take 1981, 1993, or 1995, they  pointed to the opposition picking up big wins in the off-year election cycle.  In one sign of the reconfigured landscape, Republican candidates lead in the polls in this fall’s closely watched gubernatorial elections. In New Jersey, where first-term Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine trails his challenger by double digits, a far-reaching corruption investigation has led to the resignation of one member of Corzine’s Cabinet and insider speculation about whether Corzine should be replaced on the ticket in November by a more viable Democratic nominee.  A new SurveyUSA poll of the Virginia gubernatorial race finds Republican Bob McDonnell leading by 15 points over his Democratic opponent, Creigh Deeds.  that is the largest lead yet in that race.  If the races finish anywhere clost to that…it will be a dismal election night for Democrats.

The first question is, can the Republicans retake the House of Representatives?  The answer is simply no….well, that is an overstatement…more like very unlikely.

Stuart Rothenberg has an excellent piece on this. Yes, the Republicans can pick up seats, but…

Yes, Republicans have plenty of opportunities in good districts following their loss of 53 House seats over the past two cycles. And yes, there are signs that the Republican hemorrhage has stopped and even possibly that the party’s fortunes have begun to reverse course.

But there are no signs of a dramatic rebound for the party, and the chance of Republicans winning control of either chamber in the 2010 midterm elections is zero. Not “close to zero.” Not “slight” or “small.” Zero.

I actually think passage of Obamacare makes picking up 40 or more seats more likely than less.  Democrats have severely underestimated the risk that health care reform could confront them with.  Already, at least 3o Blue Dog Democrat seats will be vulnerable…and if there is a flood, they could all be washed away. A House power change could happen…but you would need all the stars aligned.

The Senate, however, holds some more interesting possibilities.

California: Let us admit it…this is a longshot if there ever were one.  But Carly Fiorina (who is smart, but is just as likely to put her foot in her mouth…she has ‘Joe Biden’ disease) is considering running against Barabara Boxer.  I wish her luck.  Boxer is running only four points ahead currently.

Connecticut:  Chris Dodd will be a major target, especially after his involvement with the AIG mess.  He will have a serious challenge after numerous issues such as his links to Countrywide.  He is also having trouble raising money within his state; a bad sign for a longterm Senator.  Currently, he is running 9 points behind Republican Rob Simmons.

Colorado:  Democrat Michael Bennet, appointed to replace former Sen. Ken Salazar when he became Interior secretary, has little name recognition.  Pete Coors, who almost beat Salazar in 2004, or popular former Gov. Bill Owens would have a serious shot of taking over this seat.  Loretta Sanchez is another possibility as a conservative Latino.

Delaware: Mike Castle appears to defeat Joe Biden’s son by double digits in current polls.

Florida: Charlie Crist right now handily defeats all Democratic opponents.

Illinois – With glorious Roland Burris out the door, Democrats are slightly worried about what should be a guaranteed Senate hold for them.  The Attorney General refused to run for the seat, which leaves the field wide open.  Republican Congressman Mike Kirk has considered running, but hurt himself by supporting the recent Cap-and-trade bill.

Kansas: Reps. Jerry Moran (R-KS-1) and Todd Tiahrt (R-KS-4) remain virtually dead even with Moran holding a slight 40-38% advantage.

Missouri: What looked like a vulnerable seat for Republican Kit Bond looks safer and safer.

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand is now beloved among Democrats.  But who could the Republicans run that would really challenge?  George Pataki?  He runs even to slightly better than Gillibrand.

Ohio:  A Republican seat they must hold.  Rob Portman is a strong candidate, going against somewhat lesser known Democrat names.  The current Secretary of State, Jessica Bruner, is likely to be the Democrats choice.  Democrats still hold an edge here.

Pennsylvania:  This was going to be hard for the Republicans to hold when Specter was there.  Now that he has defected, this will be an extremely difficult seat to take over, unless there is a rush of Republicanism in the country.  Pat Toomey, however, appears to be running strong so far.

Nevada: Who would have thought Harry Reid would be fighting for his political life?  But a recent poll shows him even to slightly behind Republican challengers.

Other possibilities, but less likely, are Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind.,  Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., and of course Majority leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.  All are on shaky ground, but are most likely to hold their seats.  Kirsten Gillibrand of New York will be a tough challenger in New York, and unlikely to lose in the Democratic state, unless someone extremely popular i.e. Pataki were to run, which is questionable.  Illinois, another steadfast Democratic state, of course has Roland Burris; but Democrats would have to be insane not to find someone to replace him, and are likely to hold the seat.  Burris so far has raised $500 dollars for his re-election…not five hundred thousand, mind you, five hundred dollars.  And of course, unless Democrats play p0litics, the Massachusetts seat of Ted Kennedy could be up for a special election in 5 months.  No clear frontrunner on either side of the aisle has yet appeared.

Governorships will also be a major battleground in 2010.  These are harder to predict, largely because local issues often predominate, though it is highly likely that in most states the economy will still be the primary issue of concern.  Democrats will have difficulty in holding many governorships, especially considering they are even at risk in highly Democratic states.

Florida: Rep. McCollum has a small lead.

Iowa - Dem. Gov. Chet Culver is polling in the low 40s…not a good side in this bellweather state.

Massachusetts – Massachusetts Republicans are excited about their latest prospect for the gubernatorial race. Charles D. Baker, a health care CEO, has declared for the race.  The most recent Rasmussen Reports poll had baker trailing Governor Deval Patrick by five points, but holding the governor to 41% of the vote.

New York - David Paterson’s approval numbers have plummeted in New York, and if someone popular (i.e. Rudy Giuliani) were to run, they could pose a significant challenge to the new governor.  Andrew Cuomo is the likely Democrat nominee if Paterson pulls out.

Ohio: Ted Strickland was very popoular, but unemployment numbers have hurt him.  He is still running slightly ahead of Republican John Kasich.

South Carolina: With Mark Sanford out the door, Democrats thought they might have a chance, but it appears that Republicans may quickly close the door.  Frontrunner right now is another Indian-American, Niki Haley.

And although it will be very hard for anyone to challenge Dianne Feinstein if she decides to run for Governor in California, Meg Whitman of Ebay fame would be a serious and powerful challenger in the very liberal state.  And this doesn’t even start to discuss more conservative states like Kansas, who recently lost their Governor to the Obama cabinet.  Sam Brownback is highly likely to take that seat from Sibelius.

In general, incumbents will likely have a hard time in 2010, especially if the economy doesn’t have a vigorous return to prosperity.  Everyone is now predicting that although the economy may rebound later this year, unemployment likely won’t rebound until the middle of 2010.  The timing of the employment rebound will be a critical component to the election cycle.  That bodes well for Republicans, if and only if they are in a position to take advantage of it.

Ultimately, it is doubtful if Republicans can retake the House or the Senate.  Actually, if it happens I would predict both houses would fall, because it would hint at a tsunami the likes of 1994.  Governorships are more likely to fall to Republicans next time around.  In any case, prospects for Democrats holding large majorities after 2010 for Barack Obama to push his policy initatives through seem less likely as we move closer to November 2010.