NEOAVATARA

Israel looks to the future, and all they see is dread and darkness.  That is what the election of Benjamin Netanyahu should tell the world.

Israelis had the choice of moderation and right wing conservatism, and picked the latter. Netanyahu is the most vitriolic figure against the Palestinians left on the Israeli political scene now that Ariel Sharon is out of the picture.  Netanyahu has been outside the mainstream, against negotiations with Palestine, against land-for-peace, against the ‘Roadmap to peace’, and even questioning the right of Palestine to exist as a separate nation.

Now, to be fair, Netanyahu has take a more moderate tone since taking the prime ministership.  But in the last few days, Netanyahu has again taken a more strident stance, basically declaring the peace process with Palestine over.  Leaders of Israel’s hawkish new government told former Maine Sen. George Mitchell, the special U.S. envoy, that they aren’t going to rush into peace talks with their Palestinian neighbors.  Bibby (as Netanyahu is also known) also stated that no recognition of Palestine would come before Palestine recognized Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he’d require Palestinians to accept Israel as a Jewish state in any future negotiations — a demand that Palestinians have up to now rejected — Israeli government officials said.  Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman told Obama’s envoy that past Israeli concessions led to war, not peace.

This was a rude but necessary awakening for the Obama Administration.  They felt they could strong arm the Israelis to accept their position on a multitude of issues, including Iran and the Palestinians.  That turned out not to be the case.

Part of this is to test Obama’s will.  The White House has been turning the screws on Israel the past few weeks.  No less a figure than White House chief-of-staff Rahm Emanuel — whose father fought with the militant Zionist group the Irgun, and whose appointment had provided such reassurance to Israeli officials — was quoted this week laying down the law to Israel.  If Israel wants US help to defuse the Iranian threat, Mr Emanuel was reported to have told Jewish leaders in Washington, then get ready to start evacuating settlements in the West Bank.  The second step was that the Obama Administration removed the requirement of Iran to halt enriching uranium to start negotiations…something that thoroughly frightened the Isrealis.

The Isrealis now have little to no faith that the U.S. will come to their aid if necessary.  That is the basic truth.  But Obama has basically made the situation worse.  Without American support, the Israelis feel that Iran is an even greater threat; at least under the Bush Administration the Iranians had to fear rapid and complete American retaliation.  Additionally, Emanuel’s playing of the ‘bad cop’ has cost more worry among the Israeli government. In fact, some reports state that the Obama Administration has told Israel there will be harsh consequences for attacking Iran…although no such ultimatum of retribution has been made to the Iranian leadership. The double standard is appalling.

That is why the Israelis are finalizing plans for large scale attacks on Iranian nuclear sites.  These have been in the planning stages for months, maybe years.  But the Israeli Air Force has quickened the pace of such plans in recent weeks, as the Obama Administration has distanced itself from the Netanyahu government.  Among the steps taken to ready Israeli forces for what would be a risky raid requiring pinpoint aerial strikes are the acquisition of three Airborne Warning and Control (AWAC) aircraft and regional missions to simulate the attack.

Officials believe that Israel could be required to hit more than a dozen targets, including moving convoys. The sites include Natanz, where thousands of centrifuges produce enriched uranium; Esfahan, where 250 tonnes of gas is stored in tunnels; and Arak, where a heavy water reactor produces plutonium. The problem is, American Intelligence and Defense experts are unsure of whether these attacks would be successful.  And even if they are, most say that the best case scenario would be delaying the Iranian program 2 to 4 years.

At the same time, it is against American interests for Isreal to bomb Iran.  CIA Director Leon Panetta recently went to Israel, and demanded that they not attack Iran without American support; the Israelis consented.  But it is an empty promise.  The Israelis know that ultimately, no matter what they do, Obama is going to back them; he can’t risk alienating the Jewish lobby at home.

The worry is really whether the Obama Administration in their arrogance is actually destabilizing the situation.  They worry more about intrasigence from the Israelis than Ahmadinejad and the Iranians.  For example, we should see how the Obama Administration reacts to the sentencing of American Journalist Roxana Saberi to 8 years for spying…a ridiculous claim.  In their defense, Iran has asked for a quick appeal to the case…let us hope it works out.

The Israelis and the American Jewish Lobby are rightfully worried about the Iranian threat.  Rahm Emanuel, son of a Zionist hero, basically told AIPAC that Israel would give Israel support if and only if  Israel restarts the peace process, even though the Palestinians have not shown any ability to keep their end of the bargain.  Above you see a new book by Aaron Klein, The Late Great State of Israel.  That basically is in a nutshell how many Israelis feel about internal and external threats to the Jewish homeland.

For Obama to minimize it is beyond naive; it is dangerous. However, a more strident America likely could keep the Israeli military at bay, but that would go against Obama’s diplomatic attempts.  It is a dangerous risk the Obama Administration is taking.  Ultimately, one thing is for sure; the Israelis will do what is necessary because they trust no one, especially President Barack Obama.