NEOAVATARA

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/05/18/analysis.netanyahu/index.html

Israel has made it clear that it will do something about Iran if America doesn’t.

Right now, it appears that Israel is on its own.

Barack Obama has been playing footsies with the Iranian leadership, particularly when it came to the Roxana Saberi controversy.  Clearly, the President has few good options.

Today, Mr. Obama met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.  In the meeting, Obama pushed the two state solution hard, stating that it is the only way forward.  Israel isn’t very confident of that, considering that who are they supposed to negotiate with?  Abbas in the West Bank , or Hamas in Gaza?  Neither has the strength to carry out any peace deal.

So far, it seems that their are more sticks than carrots for Israel, and vice versa for Iran.  And neither strategy is working out very well.  Israel feels no obligation to listen to an ally that may not support them when push comes to shove.  And with Iran, the elections there have made it virtually impossible to carry out any rational discussion.

Maybe Obama is hoping Ahmadinejad will lose, and he will have a better person to negotiate with.  Longshot, but still worth the gamble.  The problem is, if Ahmadinejad some how loses, will the momentum to deal with Iran increase or decrease?  You can already hear liberals looking for a way to avoid any confrontation, military or otherwise, with Iran.

One important point did come out in this meeting.  Obama has a time limit on discussing any options with Iran.  He stated today that there would have to be significant process by the end of the year, otherwise he would take harsh action, likely meaning much stricter embargoes.   Whether China or Russia would support such an embargo is doubtful however.

The real time line is Israel’s.  How long are they willing to be patient?  And do they trust Obama?  This is critical to the future of the Israeli-Iranian dynamic.  If they trust Mr. Obama, they may be willing to wait longer in hopes that America will take action.  However, if they don’t, they will have to react to what Netanyahu today described as an existential threat.