NEOAVATARA

UPDATE:  Tom Ridge has said he will not run for the Senate seat in Pennsylvania.  This is definitely a blow to the Republican chances in the state.  Pat Toomey, the prime Republican candidate, is a fiscal conservative, and it is questionable if he can win the state.  That said, there really are no other ‘star’ GOP candidates out there, which makes Specter’s re-election more likely.

Former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge, a well known moderate and pro-choice candidate, is considering a run for the Senate seat in the state, to replace Arlen Specter and run against former Rep. Pat Toomey for the nomination.

Ridge is a relatively strong fiscal conservative, and is clearly a conservative on foreign affairs.  His time at the Department of Homeland Security was hit and miss, but you somewhat have to give him a break for runnning the all new department, which other than the Defense Department is the largest in the federal government.  I am sure there will be comedians making fun of his ‘color coding’ scheme for terror warnings.

But that said, Ridge is a war hero with strong conservative links, and would certainly be an upgrade from Specter.  He is exactly the type of Republican that we need for a ‘big tent’ party.  Sure, he is not in line with social conservatives, but c’est la vie.  He is a small government fiscal conservative…and that is more than can be said for many Republicans these days.  And he is a steadfast defender of the country, and a patriot.  He would be a good addition to the Republican Senate.

Specter, for example, continues to lose his mind.  Yesterday he said the Republicans prevented him from spending money on cancer research.  And that money, if spent, would have save the recently deceased Jack Kemp.  What a ludicrous statement, and pure demagoguery.  A few more statements like that, and Specter may have a tougher time to get re-elected.

What does this do to the 2010 race?  Well, Ridge would be a powerful challenger to Toomey, but not a shoo-in by any means.  If he were to win the nomination, he could defeat Specter.  A Quinniapac poll shows Specter beating Toomey by 20 points…but edging out Ridge by only 3 points.  A recent Time poll shows Ridge beating Specter 48-41.  So anything is possible.

Additionally, one of Specter’s main claims, that he is a senior Senator that can bring aid back to the state, went out the window as Senate Democrats stripped him of all seniority today.  In other words, the only Senator less senior than Specter right now would be the future potential Senator from Minnesota, Al Franken.  Also, Specter may lose his place on many committees, further decreasing his importance.  Sucks to be a defector.

owever, that raises another dynamic.  Democrats may not suppport a vulnerable Specter, and would consider a ‘true’ Democratic challenger instead of Specter.  So, after switching parties, Specter may still not be able to win the election…which would be a fitting end to his political career.  Only time will tell.