NEOAVATARA

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/05/07/pakistan.swat.death/index.html

Pakistan military forces continued their assault on Taliban forces in the Buner district in the western territories.  The fighting has been intense, with tens of thousands of civilians fleeing the area because of the violence.  At least 50,000 civilians have been displaced, and many civilian casualties were reported.  This came on the same day that the Pakistan military finally officially withdrew its truce with the Taliban in the contested area of Swat.  Approximately half a million civilians are fleeing the area.

The military has been effective in pushing the Taliban out of the district.  However, how long lasting the success will be is highly doubtful.  Unless they employ a ‘win-and-hold’ strategy, similar to the Americans in Iraq, there will be a resurgence of Taliban in the region shortly.  They are very good at hiding under rocks until it is safe to come out.

The problem presented to the Obama Administration is a huge one.  Top U.S. military leaders have sounded the alarms on the issue this week.  General David Petraeus said the next two weeks will be critical to the long term survival of Pakistan as a free country.  Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has also issued the alarm whether Pakistan has the durability to sustain military victories, although he has been more optimistic of late.

The big question, of course, is the survivability of the country, and the stability of the nuclear arsenal.  Many military experts are highly dubious of the safety of the Pakistani nuclear stockpile.  They don’t feel the stockpile is under imminent threat, but do fear the risk is there.  Military officials do claim to know where all of the nuclear weapons and research sites are, and have hinted that they have contingency plans in case the country falls into disarray. However, all military plans of the sort are, of course, suspect, and most of those plans were written by the Bush Administration…whether Obama would blindly follow the same plan is questionable.

But the debate rages.  David Albright and Paul Brannan of the Institute for Science and International Security wrote in a recent report documenting the progress of those facilities,“In the current climate, with Pakistan’s leadership under duress from daily acts of violence by insurgent Taliban forces and organized political opposition, the security of any nuclear material produced in these reactors is in question.”  Not exactly a glowing endorsement of Pakistan’s nuclear safeguards.

The Pakistanis of course dismiss those fears as anti-Pakistani paranoia. But Pakistan’s credibility is always in doubt.  For example, reports about Abdul Qadeer Khan, one of the architects of Pakistan’s race for the nuclear bomb, said that he had sold nuclear technology on the black market. The government denied that for years…until finally admitting the truth.  Pakistan’s ability to tell the truth, especially when it paints them in a poor light, is always suspect.  The U.S. must be highly vigilant in order to avoid a catastrophe in this region.