NEOAVATARA

In a move that should surprise no one, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected U.S. calls to impose a freeze on all settlement activity in the occupied West Bank, setting the stage for friction with President Barack Obama.  What made this worse was that Israel made this move just one week after holding its first talks with the new U.S. President.

Netanyahu told the weekly meeting of his Cabinet that he would not allow any new settlements to be created, but said existing settlements must be allowed to expand for “natural growth,” the ill-defined term Israel uses for population growth in the settlements. “We will not build new settlements,” he said, according to remarks released by his office. “But it is not fair not to provide a solution to natural growth.”

This is a thumb in the nose toward the U.S. President and his Chief of Staff, Rahm Emanuel.  They had tried strong arm tactics to convince the Israelis to make huge concessions in order to move toward a two state solution.  The Palestinians have said that they will not restart negotiations until all settlement construction was halted.

Israelis have frankly lost faith that the Americans will definitively support Israel in any conflict.  Just over half of Israelis back an immediate attack on the nuclear facilities of arch-foe Iran but the rest want to wait and see the results of US diplomacy, according to a poll released on Sunday. This shows the increasing intrasigience of the Israeli people.    This has increased dramatically since President Bush left office.  The connection is simple:  Israelis trusted Bush to come to their aid, and don’t trust Obama in the same manner.  Thus, they feel their security is more and more their own responsibility.

Additionally, as with many foreign affairs issue in this administration, Obama has totally misjudged his leverage and power.  Israel ultimately will do what is best for Israel, regardless of American protestations.  Obama doesn’t seem to understand this.  Sure, he can implement all sorts of retributions after the fact, but that is like putting Humpty-Dumpty back together again.  Israelis largely believe they are facing a existential threat…this is not an extremist view there.  And they have no belief that Obama will protect them.  An example:   Israel ran its largest security drill EVER in the end of May…that should signal that Israel is serious.

Obama has to take a more pro-security policy toward Israel, and ensure them of protection from Iran and others.  Otherwise, Israel rightfully will feel they wll have little or nothing to gain from the continued close Israeli-American alliance.