NEOAVATARA

Barack Obama today spoke in Cairo, Egypt in an attempt to convince the bulk of Muslims that the United States is not an enemy. You can see a full transcript here.

We have a responsibility to join together on behalf of the world we seek,” he said. “A world where extremists no longer threaten our people, and American troops have come home; a world where Israelis and Palestinians are each secure in a state of their own, and nuclear energyis used for peaceful purposes; a world where governments serve their citizens, and the rights of all God’s children are respected.

I have come here to seek a new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the world; one based upon mutual interest and mutual respect; and one based upon the truth that America and Islam are not exclusive, and need not be in competition, he said. Instead, they overlap, and share common principles — principles of justice and progress; tolerance and the dignity of all human beings.

Obama clearly has an opening that no other U.S. President, or no other western leader, has.  Muslims (regardless of Obama’s own protestations) see them as one of their own.  His name is Muslim; his father was Muslim; that is enough for them.  They have an affiliation with Mr. Obama that no one else could have. In some ways Obama goes too far, when he claims that the United States could be considered a Muslim country.  Huh?   There are approximately 2 million Muslims in this country, which would probably not put us in the top 20 Muslim countries in the world.

But that sympathy only goes so far; and also has unintended consequences.

First of all, the Cairo speech was not transformative.  First, speaking about equality in the Muslim equivalent of a totalitarian regime (Mubarak is ready to pass the torch of power to his son…sound like North Korea?) rings a little hollow, and I doubt Obama will speak against our Egyptian allies on this trip.  Instead, along with visits to Turkey, Iraq, and now Saudi Arabia, Obama sees this as a sustained, longterm effort to convince Muslims of America’s good intentions.  Part of that is hoping that repeated apologies for his predecessor will make amends.  He talked extensively about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but brought no new policy initiatives to the table.  That is probably a great strategy, as moving an entire population’s dislike of the US is difficult to say the least.

Maybe most startingly…did Obama say anything we haven’t heard before, from Bill Clinton and even George W. Bush?  I don’t think so.  So again, the symbol of Obama is more important than his words and actions.

But the realities of today always conflict with the goals of tomorrow.

Obama continues to deal with Guantanamo Bay, Bagram, and other holding/interrogation sites.  And despite his vilifying rhetoric, his policies have virtually come in line with that of his predecessor.  That does not go over well with the Arab World.

In Iraq and Afghanistan, Obama’s policies are identical to that of George W. Bush.

With Iran, we are seeing no action…which I guess is the Bush policy.  But time is Iran’s friend.  Just like with North Korea, Iran’s mullahs are hoping that the longer they can delay any real action, the closer they come to building their ultimate deterrent, a nuclear weapon.  Obama has now even opened another door, saying Iran has the right to enrich and use nuclear fuel.  If that is the case, the case for a nuclear bomb is only a short leap after that, isn’t it?

On Israel, Obama has lost much of his political capital in the Jewish state, largely because they don’t trust him to protect Israel when push comes to shove.  Israelis opening state their irritation that Obama seems more willing to speak to the leaders of Iran, North Korea, and Venezueula than their own duly elected Prime Minister.  However, Obama did plead with the Arab States to do more:

Finally, the Arab States must recognize that the Arab Peace Initiative was an important beginning, but not the end of their responsibilities. The Arab-Israeli conflict should no longer be used to distract the people of Arab nations from other problems. Instead, it must be a cause for action to help the Palestinian people develop the institutions that will sustain their state; to recognize Israel’s legitimacy; and to choose progress over a self-defeating focus on the past.

America’s strong bonds with Israel are well known. This bond is unbreakable. It is based upon cultural and historical ties, and the recognition that the aspiration for a Jewish homeland is rooted in a tragic history that cannot be denied.

Around the world, the Jewish people were persecuted for centuries, and anti-Semitism in Europe culminated in an unprecedented Holocaust. Tomorrow, I will visit Buchenwald, which was part of a network of camps where Jews were enslaved, tortured, shot and gassed to death by the Third Reich. Six million Jews were killed – more than the entire Jewish population of Israel today. Denying that fact is baseless, ignorant, and hateful. Threatening Israel with destruction – or repeating vile stereotypes about Jews – is deeply wrong, and only serves to evoke in the minds of Israelis this most painful of memories while preventing the peace that the people of this region deserve.

Obama did convince Pakistan to move against the Taliban its western territories, but at a high price.  An estimatea 2.5 million people have been displaced in Swat, many being very conservative followers of Islam.  If the Pakistani government does not make amends to these people once the military action is complete, it is likely to foment more terrorism and hatred.  Osama Bin Laden is already using the campaign as a recruiting tool.

And like with Israel, Obama has completely misunderstood his relationship with India.  India, the second largest Muslim country in the world, by the way, had grown extremely close to the Bush Administration.  Obama has virtually thrown that relationship out the window.  His lack of understanding of the Indian subcontinent will have longterm repercussions.

So in short,  a PR offensive is a good thing to have toward the Muslim world.  Bush obviously had no standing in that region, while Obama has immense clout.  I will say, on a personal note, I thought the speech was excellent.  Obama has started a dialogue; but dialogue is two ways, and it will only be successful if it is reciprocated by the likes of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and yes, even Iran.

It was classic Obama; no details, high flying rhetoric, and the hope for change with no substance behind it.  He spoke of Judaism, Christianity, and Islam all believing in the concept of ‘peace among men’, that God wants peace, but man must follow that principle.  It is a worthy message.  However, the crowd showed mixed results.  When Obama praised Islam, they were elated; when he gave them hard truths, they were less than pleased.

I think he did do what he needed to do; show the Middle East that Obama has a different vision for Islam’s relationship with the west, and surely that will give him more clout in the region.  But clout only goes so far.  Policy must follow rhetoric.  And so far, Obama’s policies fall well short of the public relations campaign.  Only time will tell if policies will follow the rhetoric.