NEOAVATARA

UPDATE:  There are so many amazing reports from Iran, I can’t list them all.  Roger Cohen of the New York Times has an excellent piece on the events of Saturday.  Nico Pitney of the Huffington Post has done a wonderful job distilling the many twitter and facebook tweets since last week; I applaud him.  Andrew Sullivan has a number of great posts on this thread.  Mousavi has also released a statement (a pretty good one at that) that can be read here.

At least 19 people are reported to have died this weekend so far, though some estimates are rumored to be closer to 100.  Reports say doctors had been ordered to report protest-related injuries to the authorities, and that some seriously injured protesters had sought refuge at foreign embassies in a bid to evade arrest.  There were numerous break-ins by paramilitaries last night.

On Sunday, former Prime Minister Rafsanjani’s daughter was arrested.  There are rumor of Mousavi’s arrest, but that has been rumored before.  The BBC’s main reporter has been expelled, apparently, and the Twitter posts have certainly slowed down.  A Life magazine reporter is also missing.  That is worrisome, because you wonder if the regime’s final assualt is being planned.

Reporters Without Borders released a study, showing Iran as the leading repressor of journalists, right with China:  “The international community cannot continue to ignore the situation. It must have a clear and unanimous reaction that is proportionate to the gravity of these events. And there will never be any question of recognising the results of the 12 June election.”  Pretty tough statement, no?  Well, atleast stronger than some…

Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, the most senior dissident cleric, stepped up criticism.  “Resisting people’s demand is religiously prohibited,” said Montazeri, an architect of Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution who fell out with the present leadership and has been under house arrest for some years.

Iran’s Parliament (Majlis) Speaker Ali Larijani, a Khameinin supporter but a man who detests Ahmadinejad,  said that “a majority of people are of the opinion that the actual election results are different than what was officially announced.”  Protests continued on Sunday, as can be seen below:

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmIcoDSSxEc

Worldwide support is growing, with protests around the globe. The leaders of France, Germany, Italy, and the EU all continued to ‘meddle’, and asked for open and transparent recount of the election results.  Barack Obama stated that the ‘world is  watching’ and that justice would eventually be served.  Even Israeli President Shimon Peres applauded the protesters.

Obama appears to be holding par for the course.  He had a slightly stronger statement yesterday.  His goal obviously is to be able to  have dialouge with the now illegitimate regime, regardless of the outcome of this revolt.  Senator Richard Lugar supported Obama on this today.

On that, I agree.  Frankly, we have and  do deal with regimes that are worse.  However, the miscalculation in my mind is that this is a lose-lose situation for Obama.  If the protesters win out (unlikely but possible), then Obama will get less credit than, say, the Europeans or even the U.S. Congress.  If the protesters are crushed, then Obama may be accused of doing nothing when their plight was the greatest.  I guess the ultimate question is, what would Mr. Obama say, sitting across the table from Ahmadinejad, if the regime, say, kills 10,000 protesters?

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This weekend, we are seeing the real force of the Iranian regime put into play.

First, Ayatolla Khameini stated the regimes views at Friday prayers:  that the protesters must stop, that the opposition leaders must stop the protesters, and all will be held liable if they don’t heed his calls.

To support this point, the regime has sent in large number of police and other forces.  There have been small clashes.  At the central Tehran site where a protest was to be held earlier, a few thousand protesters came into contact with riot police, with mild violence and the firing of tear gas.  A few thousand protesters have gather at Tehran University, which is close to the protest site.

Scarier still was a report of a bomb (rumors of a suicide bomber?) at the Mausoleum of Ayotallah Khomeini.  A few people were reported injured.   However, this site is highly sequested, and no independent news sources were available to verify the story.

There were mass demonstrations scheduled for Saturday, but they do not yet appear to be coalescing.  Mousavi and other leaders have been told they will be held responsible for the protests…which may mean their lives are at stake.  Mousavi apparently declared on his facebook page that he is now ready for martyrdom.  Mousavi has placed the blame for any violence on the regime itself.  “If the huge volume of vote-rigging — which has set aflame people’s trust in Iran’s ruling system — is going to be used as proof for the lack of rigging, then the system is going to the slaughterhouse,” the Facebook post stated. “It will also prove the incompatibility of Islam and democracy.”

There are reports of hundreds of injured.  Some are being taken and seeking refuge in foreign embassies.  There are a number of dead as well.  “Let the Qu’ran shield you. It’s a mortal sin to kill anyone holding the Qu’ran. BRING your Qu’ran to protest!!!” one person wrote on Twitter. “We will try 2 keep this rally peaceful/silent as usual at every cost. Cant give them excuse 2 use force. Hope they wont,” another said.  There are numerous videos of people being shot and killed.  I don’t feel right posting them directly but you can see them here and here.  Viewer discretion advised.

Ultimately, it will be interesting if this protest movement follows the path of 1999, when the protests died in a few days after regime forces clamped down, or is closer to the 1979 revolt.  The remainder of today should tell us a lot about the strength of the movement, and what price they are willing to pay.

Internationally, Europe has been very strong in their repudiation of the Iranian regime’s actions.  Angela Merkel, Nicholai Sarkozy, and Gordon Brown have given strong statements against any violence.  Barack Obama continues his patient vigil of noninterference, despite quiet protestations from allies in the inner circle who disagree with him, including Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.  One problem was the Ms. Clinton has been in the hospital for a elbow fracture, and so Mr. Biden has been the lone voice for a stronger statement…and his voice has lost much credibility in the White House at this point.

Ultimately, although a stronger statement by America would be better for longterm American interests, as far as the Iranian protests are concerned, it is doubtful that by itself it would make a difference.  It would provide moral support for people putting their lives at danger.  On the other hand, I doubt that an American President’s words are going to make the difference.  Mr. Obama ultimately should neither get the credit or blame if this protest movement fails.  It will be up to the protesters themselves to determine how much they are willing to sacrifice for freedom.

I will say this the Iranian protesters:  the World community is with you in spirit, no matter what our leaders will and will not say.  And I will leave you with a quote from Mahatma Gandhi:

“First they ignore you; then they laugh at you; they they fight you; then, you win.”

Keep the spirit alive.