NEOAVATARA

It is now a matter of time before Israel launches a large scale assault on Iranian nuclear sites.

That is the growing consensus among intelligence analysts, and has been my opinion as well.  Israel was hoping that the election revolt in Iran would cause some kind of reform, that would allow them to delay any military option.  In fact, it has done just the opposite.  Although the revolt smolders on, it does not look like the Mullahs and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s grip on power will relent.  Even worse, they appear to have hardened their resolve against the west, with open antagonism against even European countries (ala the arrest of workers from the British Embassy).

So now, it appears, Israel has no other choice.  At least under President Bush, they had some hope that the United States would either independently take action, or would work in concert with the Isrealis.  No such hope exists under President Obama.  Mr. Obama’s approval ratings in Israel is in the single digits…can’t believe that it is much higher than the Ayatollah’s, actually.

So Israel appears to be taking preliminary steps to prepare for an Iranian assualt.  First, the Saudis apparently have quietly given Israel tacit approval to use their airspace, if the need arises.  From the Times of London:

The head of Mossad, Israel’s overseas intelligence service, has assured Benjamin Netanyahu, its prime minister, that Saudi Arabia would turn a blind eye to Israeli jets flying over the kingdom during any future raid on Iran’s nuclear sites.

Earlier this year Meir Dagan, Mossad’s director since 2002, held secret talks with Saudi officials to discuss the possibility.

The Israeli press has already carried unconfirmed reports that high-ranking officials, including Ehud Olmert, the former prime minister, held meetings with Saudi colleagues. The reports were denied by Saudi officials.

“The Saudis have tacitly agreed to the Israeli air force flying through their airspace on a mission which is supposed to be in the common interests of both Israel and Saudi Arabia,” a diplomatic source said last week.

Although the countries have no formal diplomatic relations, an Israeli defence source confirmed that Mossad maintained “working relations” with the Saudis.

You have to wonder if the Israelis are talking to the Americans as well.  It is doubtful, with Obama as wishy-washy as he has been regarding relations in the Middle East, that he would on any level o.k. an Israeli attack.  But Vice President (or court jester, whichever you prefer) Joe Biden said the following:  ” [The United States] cannot dictate to another sovereign nation what they can and cannot do.”  Um, that sounds like a tacit approval to me.  But knowing our V.P., he is most likely totally off the reservation.  Barack Obama clearly backed off those claims in Moscow on Monday.  But it does hint that at the very least a conversation has  been occurring.

How serious is Israel?  Well, for months they have been carrying out long range air trials over the Mediterranean.  They have been training on long flight air refueling, something they don’t commonly do.  The distant, coincidentally, is similar in length to the distance to Iran.  What a coincidence!  Additionally, the Isrealis are pushing the U.S. to sell them stealth F-22s as soon as possible.

Additionally, Israel has sent one of their submarines, its advanced Dolphin-class submarine, through the waterway to participate in naval maneuvers off the Eilat coast in the Red Sea.  The Dolphin-class submarine sailed through last month to get from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea. Israeli officials said it passed through the canal above water, and that it was not done covertly.  Why move submarines through the Suez, except to place it in closer proximity to Iran?  Are they going to the Maldives for a vacation?