NEOAVATARA

c/oMichael Ramirez, IBD Editorial

President Obama repeatedly blames his party‘s utter failure in convincing the public that his health care reform is the right path forward on ‘the distortions of the right’. Clearly, there are distortions on the right…most people are not denying that. But Obama is the biggest denier of all if he doesn’t admit that there have been major falsehoods told by he and his party on health care as well.

Just a few examples:

1.  You will be able to keep your current doctor and current insurance.

It would be much more accurate to say you MAY be able to do the above.  There are specific provisions in the House bill that would make it more likely that you could be defaulted into the public option if your employer changed your health plan.  And this is not a partisan charge.  The CBO in their analysis has said 6-10 million people are LIKELY to lose their current insurance under Obamacare, and would have to move the public option against their will.  You can argue how many people will lose their insurance, but not the fact that some people will in fact not be able to keep their current insurance.

So Obama‘s promise, as of right now, is a false one.

2.  Illegal immigrants won’t get health care under Obamacare.

UPDATE:  The Congressional Research Service now admits that for all practical purposes, illegal immigrants would be covered under the House bill 3200.  CNN reported on it here.

Frankly, this is absurd on its face.

Today, without universal care, you understand that we pay for health care for illegal immigrants.  They come to the ER, and we treat them.  To believe that all of a sudden we will turn people away once Obamacare is instituted just is unbelievable.  Maybe they won’t get the full benefits of Obamacare…but we will certainly still be subsidizing their health care costs.  Maybe it would be honest to say the won’t get any more benefits than they currently get…but that isn’t saying that much.

3.  The Middle Class won’t pay more taxes for health care.  And the Health Care Plan will be budget neutral.

This largely depends on which bill you look at.  Obama can  promise anything he likes…but since he has turned over health care reform to the Congress, it is their deliberations that matter.

For example, under a June draft of the Senate Finance Committee’s cost-cutting compromise, a family of three with pretax income at 300% of the poverty level, or $55,000, would have to pay up to 15% of pretax income, or $8,250, to buy coverage — or else face a fine.  Assuming a qualifying policy is available at that price, it would almost certainly be a high-deductible plan. That means such a family would likely be required to pay upwards of 18% of their income before the first dollar of benefits kicks in.

It is highly unlikely that the Democrats will be able to protect the two largest Obama promises at the same time:  not adding to the deficit while at the same time not taxing the middle class.  The numbers simply do not add up.

As for budget neutrality…there is simply no way that you can add 15% more people to a plan already bulging at the seams, and be able to pay for everyone.  You need to either find new revenue sources (in Obamaspeak, that means taxes), or deficit spend.

4.  Medicare won’t be cut.

It depends. Frankly, it comes down to this:  do you trust President Obama?

Obama has promised that he will cut several programs from Medicare, without diminishing benefits.  Now, you simply have to take him at his word, because ultimately after the bill passes, he can do as he wishes.

I would argue that Obama’s statement is a falsehood, however.  Why?  Well, because of one of his other promises.  Obama has promised to eliminate Medicare Advantage, which is a part of Medicare that allows you to get your benefits from a private insurer instead of the government. Originally passed in 1997 under the Clinton administration, it was hoped it would give Medicare benficiaries more choice.  The programs often give more benefits, but are criticized because they often exlude sicker people in favor of health ones.  Additionally, it is questionable if these programs are cost effective.

Even Democrats are admitting that Medicare benefits will have to be cut.  Powerful Democrat Congressman Ed Markey admitted as much this week.  “There’s going to be some people who are going to have to give up some things, honestly, for all of this to work,” Markey said at a Congress on Your Corner event at CSU. “But we have to do this because we’re Americans.”

Currently, about 18% of Americans get their Medicare benefits this way.  So, for about one in five retirees, Obama is promising to remove their choice of health care.  I guess that breaks two promises:  being able to keep their current insurance, and sustaining current Medicare benefits.

5. Preventativc Care will save money.

First, let me clarify one thing.  Preventative care is a good thing.  It makes people healthier, allows them to live longer, and enables them to have higher quality of life.  I am fully in favor of preventative medicine.

But it DOES NOT save money.

This is one of the biggest whoppers that Obama continues to tell.  He has no facts to support him on this.  None. Zero.  The only support for that statement is the opinions of several so-called experts…but those experts have no proof for it either.

You don’t have to go far from the White House to prove the fallacy…just look to the CBO:

“The evidence suggests that for most preventive services, expanded utilization leads to higher, not lower, medical spending overall,” CBO director Douglas Elmendorf wrote in an Aug. 7 letter to Rep. Nathan Deal, the top Republican on a congressional subcommittee involved in the debate.

Elmendorf explained that, while the cost of a simple test might be cheap for each individual, the cumulative cost of many tests could be quite expensive:

“But when analyzing the effects of preventive care on total spending for health care, it is important to recognize that doctors do not know beforehand which patients are going to develop costly illnesses. To avert one case of acute illness, it is usually necessary to provide preventive care to many patients, most of whom would not have suffered that illness anyway. … Preventive care can have the largest benefits relative to costs when it is targeted at people who are most likely to suffer from a particular medical problem; however, such targeting can be difficult because preventive services are generally provided to patients who have the potential to contract a given disease but have not yet shown symptoms of having it.”

Don’t like the CBO?  How about medical experts?  This includes a Feb. 14, 2008, article in the New England Journal of Medicine that was written in response to campaign promises for more preventive care.  “Sweeping statements about the cost-saving potential of prevention … are overreaching,” according to the paper. “Studies have concluded that preventing illness can in some cases save money but in other cases can add to health care costs.”   And a study conducted by researchers from the American Diabetes Association, American Heart Association and the American Cancer Society concluded that, while interventions to prevent cardiovascular disease would prevent many strokes and deaths, “as they are currently delivered, most of the prevention activities will substantially increase costs.”

And it is nonsensical, that when preventative care has not been shown to reduce costs, tort reform (which isn’t in the plan) actually could provide cost reductions.  Howard Dean this week admitted that tort reform isn’t in the bill becuase Democrats are afraid of the cash cow of the legal profession.  A sad commentary, and insight into how the Democrats wrote the bill.

I would like the President to prove to me how he defends those statements.

6.  The Public favors Obamacare and the Public Option.

Democrats love stating this, although it is blatantly false.  Heck, even the liberals at Politifact state that.  You can look at various polls, but I think it is fair to say right now, the country is divided 50/50 on whether there should be a public option.  And unfortunately for Democrats, the trend is working against them.

As for Obamacare, if you take any poll taken in the month of August, a small majority is against Obamacare as it stands now…and that includes every major polling unit, liberal or conservative.

Polls can change, as they have since May.  But as of right now, the country is evenly divided, with the tide moving against Obamacare.

7. The Republicans are at fault for this mess.

I know…I know…this is a political fact.  But it is still a falsehood of Obama’s.  Look, simply put, the Republicans have no teeth.  Under then yelling and screaming, what can they do to stop Obamacare?  The answer is, nothing.

Obamacare is dying a slow death not because Republicans want to kill it (which they may, or may not…but that isn’t the point).  No, it is dying because Democrats are worried about the pushback from the American public.  I know, liberals would love to believe that the protests have been falsely created, but that is simply not the case.  You see moderate Democrats and independents leaving Obama and Democrats in droves…largely because of this issue.  And Obama, who doesn’t have to face voters until 2012, can sit around patiently as the public forgets.  But many members of Congree don’t have that luxury.

At least 30 Congressman members of the Blue Dog Democrats in Congress as well as approximately 10 or so moderate Democratic Senators are wavering on the Public Option.  And in an additional blow, Joe Lieberman is also asking the President to delay some of his legislation because of the bad economy.  And this doesn’t even take into account the absence of Ted Kennedy and Robert Byrd because of illness.

Simply put, there are a lot of misconceptions and outright lies on both sides of the aisle on the health care issue.  But Mr. Obama is not excused from trying to mislead the American people either.  It is unfortunate that for all practical purposes, he has fallen into the classic old style politics that he campaigned to end.  And here is one truth that I will leave you with:  There is no one person, Mr. Ob ama included, in American politics that the public trusts enough now to be able to push health care reform through.  If Mr. Obama and Democrats want reform, they will have to work with Republicans, or face a massive legislative defeat.