NEOAVATARA

I have long said that if you are going to deal with Iran, you have to have at least the threat of serious repercussions on the table.

That ultimately is what Obama is lacking.  Does anyone, anywhere, believe that Barack Obama would launch any kind of military strike against Iran?

The answer is clearly no.  And that is why Iran currently is acting like a country without any fear.  Sure, Israel could hit them, but that isn’t necessarily a losing situation for them.  An Israeli attack against Iran would do something that no other action could ever do:  unite the Arab world.

Anyone looking at the middle east must understand a simple reality:  Iran is neither liked nor trusted in the region.  Simply put, there are many in the region that would be more than happy to allow Israel to attack Iran if the time comes.  The problem is with the Arab street.  Arab leaders have long instigated hatred toward Israel, and have blamed the Jewish republic for every ill that befalls the Muslim world.  This would not be any different.

So ultimately the only punishment that Iran is facing is harsh United Nations Sanctions.  These are similar to the sanctions placed on Saddam Hussein and Iraq…in which Saddam was able to sell billions of dollars of oil, and funnel it to his own pocket.

Iran also holds another card in its back pocket:  its economic relationship with both Russia and China.  Russia has billions of dollars of contractual agreements with Iran, for sales of everything from military goods to nuclear reactors to food products.  China, on the other hand, receives approximately 15% of its energy from Iran.  No matter how nicely we talk to those two world powers, they are unlikely to bend to the will of the international community.

Iran for its part has only one goal in mind:  to delay.  It has seen how successful North Korea has been.  They delayed for decades, and now are untouchable because of their nuclear deterrent.  Robert Gates, speaking on the Sunday shows, said he believes we have 1-3 years before Iran has a nuclear weapon.  That is not good.  12 months is not exactly what I consider to be a large margin for error.  Iran has stated that they will accept IAEA inspections of the newly publicized nuclear facility.  They know that the UN and the IAEA move slowly, and that it is unlikely that either organization would have any significant findings on the facility for at least 6 months.  Again, more time, the better.

In the mean time, Iran is more than happy to stick a needle in the eye of the international community.  They spent the weekend launching a new host of short range missiles; missiles, coincidentally, that are thought to be able to reach Israel.

October 1st brings the beginning of new talks with the Iranian regime.  The world now clearly knows that Iran is willing to break the law to develop a nuclear weapon.  I hope that Obama has a trick up his sleeve, because I frankly don’t see any endgame right now that works in the favor of the United States.