NEOAVATARA

Nancy Pelosi today brings up the keystone of President Obama and the Democrats legislative vision for America:  A $1.2 Trillion dollar unpaid mandate for national health care.   And even that is a underestimated; that presumes a $500 billion cut in Medicare that Congress can alway renege on at a future date to placate angry seniors.  It would not be out of the realm of possibility that the program will cost well over $3 trillion (Ironically, this was later verified by the CBO…yikes).

This, at a time that unemployment hit 10.2%, and according to exit polling from last weeks elections, health care was somewhere between 5th and 7th most important issue to voters.  And public opposition to the health care plan is solidifying; whether it be CNN, Rasmussen, Gallup, or other polling, almost all show opposition over 50%.

Between the poll numbers and election results, moderate Democrats are feeling the heat.  Much of the reason that Nancy Pelosi scheduled the uncommon Saturday vote on the bill was to prevent members from going back to their districts and hearing complaints from their constituents.  Protests appear to be popping up again, even on Capitol Hill, and the members are hearing the voices of discontent.

Much of the problems with passage of the bill are orginating within the Democratic caucus itself.  Late Friday, House Democrats cleared an abortion-related impasse blocking a vote and officials expressed optimism they had finally lined up the support needed to pass Obama’s signature issue. Under the arrangement, Democratic Reps. Bart Stupak of Michigan, Brad Ellsworth of Indiana and other abortion opponents were promised an opportunity to insert tougher restrictions into the legislation during debate.

Members of the Hispanic caucus, 20 or so strong, were opposed to any measure that would prevent illegal immigrants to purchase health care through the exchange.  Of course, allowing illegals to purchase through the exchange would be an explosive amendment for Democrats to defend in next year’s elections.

And through all this, Republicans basically are standing on the sidelines.  Democrats have barred them from many of the key debates, and their only choice is complete opposition.  Of course, the Democrats if unified can pass anything in the House.  That they are struggling to come up with the 218 votes necessary speaks volumes about how liberal the  current bill is.  The White House and liberal groups are putting on a full court press.  Obama is planning to go to Capitol Hill today to directly lobby fence sitters in his party.  Moveon.org and other liberal groups have threatened any no votes with strong opposition from the left in next year’s election.  And yet, the 218 vote number is a struggle to achieve.

Ultimately, I hope that they pass this.  Why?  First, most of the provisions will not survive the Congress, where there are at least 43 strong ‘No’ votes for the public option.  Second, the opposition to this plan will only continue to increase.  The public is not going to be happy with many of the Stalinistic propositions in the plan, among them possible jail time for those that do not abide by the mandate.  The abortion and immigrant issue will also continue to pop up, and we may even hear anger regarding the so-called ‘Death panels’, which have been reinserted into the bill.

Frankly, passage of this bill is going to be toxic for any moderate or conservative in the 2010 election.  They will be pounded day after day for not listening to the constituents of their district.  This is a gift from Nancy Pelosi to the Republicans that will keep on giving.

UPDATE:  The Democrats were able to pass the bill, 220-215.  39 Democrats voted ‘No’ on the proposal, 1 Republican (Joe Cao, who replaced “Dollar Bill” Jefferson in a blue district in Louisiana) voting ‘yes’.  It is amazing that Obama, Pelosi, and the political left is so weak at this point.  How they get this passed through the Senate is beyond me.